Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann start their book with a delightful peek into their morning routine - taking walks after their kids head to school, discussing everything from careers to current events. Why are we telling you this? Because during these walks, they notice something fascinating: they use the same thinking tools over and over again to understand different situations. They call these recurring ideas "mental models." A mental model is simply a concept from any field that helps you understand how something works. Think of it like a thinking tool. For example, in physics, there's a concept called critical mass - the amount of nuclear material needed to start a chain reaction. That's a mental model from physics. In economics, there's opportunity cost - what you give up when choosing one option over another. That's a mental model from economics.

While every field has hundreds of mental models, some of these models are surprisingly useful far beyond their original field. These special mental models are what the authors call "super models." Let's stick with critical mass to understand this difference. Most physics concepts like Coriolis force or Lenz's law are mental models that are only useful in physics. But critical mass? That concept turns out to be incredibly useful in many situations outside physics. A new social media platform needs a critical mass of users before it becomes viable. A party needs a critical mass of people before it gets lively. A protest movement needs a critical mass of supporters before it can create change. That broad applicability beyond physics is what makes critical mass a super model rather than just a mental model.

The authors learned about this approach from Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's partner, who emphasizes that wisdom isn't about memorizing isolated facts - it's about having useful models to understand how things work. While Munger's background is in investment, Weinberg and McCann expand this idea across multiple disciplines. They've carefully selected about 80-90 models that carry "90 percent of the freight in making you a worldly-wise person." Interesting, right? Time to learn about the power of super models, then!

Life has a funny way of playing tricks on us. Take the British government's attempt to name a polar research ship in 2016. They opened it up to public voting, probably expecting dignified suggestions. Instead, they got "RSS Boaty McBoatface" winning by a landslide with 124,109 votes. While they eventually named it RSS Sir David Attenborough, this amusing incident reveals a deeper truth about how our well-intentioned actions can lead to unexpected results.

The same pattern emerged when Mountain Dew tried to crowdsource a name for their new soda. They had to shut down the campaign when names like "Diabeetus" started climbing the rankings.

But unintended consequences aren't always just amusing anecdotes. Consider the serious case of prescription opioids. Doctors prescribe them to help patients manage chronic pain - a noble goal. Yet these medications are highly addictive, leading some patients to abuse their prescriptions or turn to dangerous alternatives like heroin. By 2017, this contributed to the deadliest drug crisis in American history, with overdose deaths exceeding peak deaths from HIV/AIDS, car crashes, or guns.

Looking at all these examples, one principle becomes clear: we need to think carefully about how people might respond to incentives and policies. Whether you're managing a team, creating a new policy, or just trying to improve your own decision-making, it's crucial to consider not just the immediate effects of your actions, but their potential ripple effects as well.

While we can't predict every possible outcome, we can use these patterns to better anticipate and prevent negative unintended consequences. Murphy's law reminds us that "anything that can go wrong, will go wrong" - not as a pessimistic warning, but as a super model to plan ahead and prepare for various possibilities.

Next?

Time is precious, and we all get the same 24 hours each day. The challenge? Making the most of those hours. And that's why our next super model is how to spend your time wisely.

Start with setting your personal north star. Just as Polaris guides travelers in the night sky, your north star is your guiding vision. It could be "being the best parent possible" or "advancing science." Having this direction helps you navigate life's choices, slowly but steadily moving you toward your goals.

Another key to spending time wisely is avoiding the two-front war of multitasking. Your brain simply can't focus on two high-concentration activities at once. When you try, you force yourself to context-switch, wasting time and doing both tasks poorly. As Peter Thiel demonstrated at PayPal by assigning each person exactly one thing, limiting multitasking allows for deeper work that produces breakthrough solutions.

The Eisenhower Decision Matrix can help you decide what deserves your attention. It sorts tasks by urgency and importance, revealing that many "urgent" matters (like most emails) aren't actually important. Meanwhile, truly important activities (like strategic planning) often get pushed aside because they lack urgency.

Remember, as productivity consultant David Allen put it, "You can do anything, but not everything." By choosing wisely, focusing deeply, and avoiding common traps like multitasking and the sunk-cost fallacy, you can make remarkable progress toward your north star over time.

Now! You can’t follow your North Star if you’re not adapted to change. On to the next super model.

When peppered moths in Manchester changed from light to dark as soot covered the trees, they weren't making a fashion statement - they were demonstrating natural selection in action. This powerful mental model, made famous by Darwin's "On the Origin of Species," explains how traits that provide reproductive advantages get selected over generations.

But natural selection isn't just for biology class. It drives societal evolution too. It shapes everything from business strategies to social movements. Looking at your own life, you can see this evolution happening at hyperspeed.

Now, this is where our super model makes sense: we can actually use scientific thinking to stay "among the fittest" in this rapidly changing environment. Like scientists making observations, forming hypotheses, testing them, and developing new theories, you gotta experiment with your life and stay in constant adaptation.

By constantly experimenting with different productivity tools, exercise programs, or business processes, we discover what works best. The most successful people and organizations are those who keep refining how they work to stay effective. Without adaptation, both people and organizations get left behind.

But, you must find your balance between order and chaos. Too much structure limits your ability to adapt, while too little means you're just drifting randomly. The most successful people maintain enough order to make progress while staying flexible enough to catch new waves of opportunity.

With natural selection, you can spot changes coming from afar, adapt quickly when needed, and position yourself to ride the next big wave rather than being crushed by it. That's the true power of natural selection as a super model.

The next super model you need for super thinking is a little tricky.

Statistical thinking might sound like a dry topic reserved for math nerds, but it's actually a crucial super model we all need in today's data-driven world. From education policies to medical treatments, numbers and data shape decisions that affect our daily lives.

Speaking of uncertainty, the authors share a perfect example about their experiences with baby sleep patterns. Their first child needed a swing to sleep, while the second one surprisingly preferred being put down drowsy but awake. Point being, even seemingly straightforward questions don't always have one-size-fits-all answers. Just like babies and their sleep preferences, many aspects of life have inherent variability.

But this doesn't mean we should throw up our hands and give up on using data to make decisions. And by data, we don't mean statements like "We had a big snowstorm this year, so much for global warming" or "My grandfather smoked and lived to 80, so smoking can't be that bad".  Instead, we need proper statistical thinking to navigate uncertainty. When evaluating any study or claim, we should ask ourselves: How was the data gathered? Was it just one study or is there a body of research? Have they accounted for various biases? Fewer than 50% of positive results in some fields can be replicated - a phenomenon called the replication crisis.

The beauty of this super model lies in its power to help us navigate uncertainty. While it can't predict exactly what will happen to any individual (like whether a specific smoker will get lung cancer), it can help us understand the likelihood of different outcomes. Speaking of different outcomes…

When faced with a complex decision, many of us instinctively reach for a pro-con list. But as Weinberg and McCann show us, there's a more sophisticated approach called scenario analysis that can help us make better choices in uncertain situations.

Scenario analysis involves thoroughly thinking through different possible futures - and it's not as simple as just brainstorming random ideas. Governments and large corporations dedicate entire teams to this process, carefully mapping out how different situations might unfold. Even academics and science fiction writers engage in this type of forward-thinking analysis.

What makes this super model difficult to apply is our natural tendency to simply extend current trends into the future. That's not how scenario planning works. Here is a better technique: try listing major potential events (market crashes, regulatory changes, industry mergers) and tracing their effects back to your situation. For example, when Gabriel was considering switching from entrepreneurship to venture capital, his scenario planning revealed hidden challenges that he hadn't considered. Like the social demands on introverts and the burden of constantly rejecting proposals. Scenario planning helps uncover those "unknown unknowns" - the risks and opportunities we didn't even know we should be thinking about.

But to develop super thinking, you need a very specific type of scenario planning. Immediate group brainstorming sessions are not too helpful, as these can lead to groupthink where everyone starts agreeing too quickly. Instead, have people work independently first, then come together to discuss different perspectives.

By systematically exploring different futures, we can prepare ourselves for whatever actually unfolds. Now! What use is super thinking if it doesn’t help us with conflicts?

Conflicts, conflicts everywhere! From international political tensions to deciding who does the dishes at home. Game theory is an incredible super model to understand and handle these situations better. Game theory boils down complex human interactions into simplified scenarios with clear rules and measurable outcomes.

Take the Prisoner's Dilemma - two criminals in separate cells face a prosecutor's offer. Each can either stay silent or betray their partner. If both stay silent, they each get just one year in prison. If both betray, they get five years each. But if one betrays while the other stays silent, the betrayer walks free while their loyal partner serves ten years. The rational choice seems to be betrayal, since it offers the best individual outcome regardless of what the other person does. Yet this leads to both criminals serving five years - much worse than if they had cooperated and stayed silent. This is a classic example of game theory.

This same pattern shows up in our education system. Modern universities keep adding luxury amenities like lazy rivers to attract students. Nobody really wins - the universities spend more money, driving up tuition costs, while students end up with crushing debt. This mirrors the Prisoner's Dilemma perfectly: everyone would be better off cooperating (universities focusing on education quality), but the fear of falling behind drives an endless cycle of escalation.

Now, in adversarial situations, almost every choice affects others, and these effects significantly influence outcomes. So cooperation produces better results than constant betrayal. But, you can't just stay cooperative and let people walk all over you. That's why we have the tit-for-tat strategy - start by cooperating, then mirror what the other person does. All clear? Let's move on.

Our next super model has its origins in the 2004 basketball Olympics. The U.S. team, packed with NBA superstars like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, lost to Puerto Rico and ultimately settled for bronze. Meanwhile, Argentina, with far less star power, clinched gold. This wasn't just luck - it demonstrated a powerful super model about team excellence that authors Weinberg and McCann explore.

This super model, which they call "Unlocking People's Potential," shows that extraordinary teams don't come from collecting individual superstars. Rather, they emerge from understanding people's unique traits and placing them in roles where they can truly shine. Just as Argentina's basketball team succeeded by finding players who complemented each other perfectly, organizations can create remarkable teams by matching people's characteristics with the right responsibilities.

The model incorporates several mental frameworks. Utilize personality dimensions - introverts might excel in deep, focused work while extroverts thrive in collaborative settings. Or the specialist-generalist spectrum - some people love knowing everything about one area, while others prefer broad knowledge across many fields. The trick is recognizing these differences and using them strategically.

But great teams need more than just proper role alignment. Creating an environment of deliberate practice where people can grow through focused feedback and coaching, is equally important.

The U.S. Olympic team's story teaches us that true team excellence comes from creating the right conditions for everyone to reach their full potential together. It's not about having the biggest stars - it's about understanding people's unique qualities and helping them shine in the right roles.

And just like that, we have reached the last super model!

When Hatchimals hit the toy stores in 2016, parents lined up overnight just to get their hands on these electronic bird toys. While they retailed for $60, some desperate buyers shelled out up to $1,200 on eBay. THIS is what a peak market power looks like, where limited supply met sky-high demand.

Market power, at its core, is the ability to raise prices without losing customers. And it's about building a castle with strong defenses, what Warren Buffett calls a "moat." Take Apple's story. They've built their castle with multiple layers of protection: unique product design, seamless integration of hardware and software, and a brand so strong that when they raise Prime prices, customers barely blink.

But how does it all relate to you? In the job market, new nurses command good salaries because their skills are in high demand. But history PhDs, despite their extensive education, struggle to find positions because supply exceeds demand. See the lesson? The lesson is differentiation - developing unique, valuable skills that the market wants.

Another tip for the business-minded, to maintain your market power, you need to watch for small threats before they become big ones. Success in maintaining market power comes down to being both vigilant and adaptable. It's about recognizing when the moat is beginning to dry up and taking decisive action to dig a new one.